Previous post: The True Meaning and Value of Hypothesis

Bets are about how much we are willing to spend to get a specific result by applying the chosen idea based on a specific hypothesis.

The most widespread (and wrong) template for a product hypothesis looks like this: "If we do X, then metric Y will change by N%."

It is much more useful to use this “Bets" template instead: "By spending $$$ doing X, we believe we can change metric Y by N%."

This is why it's important to use it:

🙅 Hypotheses are about "beliefs"

🧮 Good bets are always about "cold calculation"

💭 Hypotheses are expected to be “generated”, most of the times out of thin air

🔬 Well-grounded bets can only be made when you have actual knowledge that you can exploit

🤷 Hypotheses provide indulgence for failure

🤔 Bets require risk assessment and hold decision-makers accountable for the result

💸 Hypotheses don't mention that any change requires spending